Top predictions on cybersecurity, cyber law and cybercrime prosecution for the near future.
By Key Dutch of Immuniweb | Best Security Company of the Year 2023- Under 150 Staff
Generative AI: Beyond the Hype
There’s no doubt that breakthroughs in large language model (LLM) powered generative AI can significantly speed up and enhance various tasks across fields like programming and cybersecurity. This includes things like generating code patches, creating secure cloud configurations, or even crafting payloads that might bypass security measures like firewalls, in a way that can seem human-like. However, it’s important to remember that many of the widely publicized claims about AI’s capabilities are, at best, overstated.
The economic future of generative AI faces some hurdles. Strict regulations like the EU’s AI Act, copyright lawsuits against AI vendors, and the lack of high-quality training data all pose challenges. These factors could push development costs so high that human labor becomes cheaper. Even if costs are optimized, errors and biases in AI outputs (“hallucinations”) could erase profits. As a result, the economic viability of generative AI in many areas is uncertain.
However, AI, including generative AI, is likely to become a valuable tool in cybersecurity and secure software development. While it won’t be a magical solution, AI can offer measurable performance improvements and free up human experts to tackle more complex problems.
The Measured Impact of AI on Cybercrime
Hold on to the hype about AI-fueled cybercrime surges. While some sensational reports predicted a dramatic rise last years, the reality is likely to be less earth-shattering in the near future. Here’s why: cybercrime is already a well-oiled machine, mature, profitable, and organized. Disrupting it with AI will likely have a slower, more measured impact, with some key exceptions we’ll explore below.
Forget the hype – even before ChatGPT’s big splash, skilled cybercriminals were already launching innovative attacks. Advanced groups have even been using machine learning and AI for years, sifting through mountains of stolen data and targeting vulnerable victims. So, the latest generative AI advancements might not faze these seasoned pros. However, there’s a catch. Generative AI offers new tools for impersonation, especially with voice and video. This means we’ll need to seriously upgrade biometric authentication systems to stay ahead of the curve.
In the near future we will see more busts of the amateurs who get sloppy with their AI-powered “hacking” and trip over their own shoelaces.
A Rising Trend: Legal Action Against Cybersecurity Professionals
Remember the legal trouble for CISOs at Uber and SolarWinds? That might be just the beginning. Over the next decade, information security professionals could face a wave of legal action. We expect a rise in criminal charges and lawsuits targeting not just top cybersecurity executives, but also mid-level employees, in cases of major data breaches and privacy incidents.
Data protection regulations are changing fast, with new rules like the SEC Security Rule and the EU NIS 2 Directive. This shows lawmakers are serious about holding leaders accountable for cybersecurity weaknesses. We expect boards to eventually accept this “new normal” – just like they’re responsible for financial oversight, they’ll be responsible for data protection too. Personal cybersecurity insurance will likely become common for board members and executives, but it’s not a silver bullet. It might not cover everything and won’t stop criminal charges.
The penalties can be harsh: jail time, hefty fines, and even bans from management positions. Unfortunately, cybersecurity insurance for companies likely won’t protect employees facing legal action. This leaves employees exposed to a growing risk with little support from their employers.
Cybercriminals: Going for the Low Hanging Fruit
Surprisingly, cyberattacks in the future might get less complex. Here’s why: Many organizations are moving to cloud environments with infrastructure-as-code (IaaC). However, they often lack the security expertise to properly secure their cloud infrastructure. This could make them vulnerable to basic cloud hacking techniques, allowing attackers to steal sensitive data without needing fancy zero-day exploits or complex hacking campaigns. On the other hand, nation-state backed attackers will likely keep developing or buying zero-day vulnerabilities, driving their prices up.
Another big problem: shadow IT. Many companies still lack a complete picture of the laptops and devices employees used while working from home. This creates a backdoor into corporate networks. At ImmuniWeb, we’ve seen compromised employee machines selling for chump change on hacking forums. These machines often contain valuable info like passwords, VPN keys, and even source code. Savvy cybercriminals will exploit this shadow IT first before resorting to more complex attacks. IT companies, accountants, lawyers, and consultants are likely to be prime targets in the future.
Ransomware: A Global Threat
Ransomware attacks could explode into a global pandemic. Here’s why it’s so concerning:
- Ransomware as a Service (RaaS): Imagine a criminal supermarket. Everything a cybercriminal needs to launch an attack – exploits, encryption tools, even money laundering – is now available online, for a fee. It’s a one-stop shop for wreaking havoc, and anyone can access it.
- Low Barrier to Entry: Even novice attackers can get started. All they need to do is compromise a website and trick someone into clicking a malicious link. There’s no complex AI involved, just basic tactics and readily available tools.
- Strained International Cooperation: Political tensions are hindering collaboration between law enforcement agencies. This makes it harder to track down cybercriminals who operate from safe havens in countries that don’t extradite them. It’s like playing whack-a-mole – shut down one gang, another pops up elsewhere
- Profit Motive: Ransomware is a highly profitable business for criminals, and they’re constantly innovating.
This combination of factors creates a perfect storm for a surge in ransomware attacks in the coming year. Without stronger international cooperation, it will be an uphill battle to stop these cyber gangs.
Conclusion
The lines are blurring between cybersecurity and cyber law. To stay ahead of the curve in the future, organizations of all sizes should consider integrating legal expertise into their cybersecurity strategies. Partnering with a cybersecurity law firm now can significantly strengthen your organization’s overall security posture.
Many companies struggle with a communication gap between cybersecurity and legal teams. This can lead to confusion, wasted time, and ultimately, bigger security headaches. Building bridges is easier than building walls. ImmuniWeb is launching a new Cybersecurity Compliance product to help companies bridge the cyber-legal gap.
About the Author
Key Dutch, ImmuniWeb
Key Dutch has been working in information technology and cybersecurity for over 20 years. As the Editor-in-Chief of ImmuniWeb’s Cybercrime Prosecution Weekly blog series, he compiles the most interesting news about police operations against cybercrime, as well as about regulatory actions enforcing data protection and privacy law.